摘要
Manyglobalemissionreductionstrategieshavebeenproposed,butfewhavebeenassessedquantitativelyfromtheviewofequality,efficiencyandeffectiveness.Integratedassessmentmodels(IAM)isoneoftheeffectivewaystomakeclimatepolicymodeling.SointhispaperwedevelopedtheMRICES(Multi-regionalintegratedmodelofclimateandeconomywithGDPspillovers)model,whichisanIAMbutextendstoincludeGDPspillovermechanism,tomakeassessmentonseveralstrategiesforglobalemissionreduction,includingtheegalitarianismstrategy,theUNDPstrategyandtheCopenhagenAccord.Using1990asabaselineforhistoricalemissionlevels,theegalitarianstrategyarguesthatdevelopedcountriesshouldimplementurgentemissionreductions,whereasdevelopingcountriesareallowedrelativelyhigherfutureemissionquotas.TheUNDPstrategyaddressestheissueofsubstantialchangesinglobaltemperaturebutacknowledgesthatdevelopingcountriesarenotabletoaffordmorecostsformitigationmeasures,whichisinequitablefromtheperspectiveofacountry’srighttodevelop.WealsosimulatedtheCopenhagenAccordtodeterminetheconsequencesbytheyear2100ifeachcountrycontinuestheircurrentemissionmitigationactions,andresultsindicatedthattheincreaseinglobaltemperaturewillbe2.8℃by2100;consequently,muchstrongeremissionreductioneffortsmustbeimplementedafter2020.Basedonanalysisonmitigationstrategies,itisrecognizedthatthecommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilityprinciplemustbeinsistedwhenmakingglobalmitigationstrategy.Tocomplywiththisprinciple,theemissionreductionbaselineofdevelopedanddevelopingcountriesshouldbediscriminated,so1990and2005canbetakenasthebaseyearfordevelopedanddevelopingcountriesrespectively.
出版日期
2012年06月16日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
