摘要
Naturalhazardssuchashurricanesmaycauseextensiveeconomiclossesandsocialdisruptionforcivilstructuresandinfrastructuresincoastalareas,implyingtheimportanceofunderstandingtheconstructionperformancesubjectedtohurricanesandassessingthehurricanedamagesproperly.Theintensityandfrequencyofhurricaneshavebeenreportedtochangewithtimeduetothepotentialimpactofclimatechange.Inthispaper,aprobability-basedmodelofhurricanedamageassessmentforcoastalconstructionsisproposedtakingintoaccountthenon-stationarityinhurricaneintensityandfrequency.Thenon-homogeneousPoissonprocessisemployedtomodelthenon-stationarityinhurricaneoccurrencewhilethenon-stationarityinhurricaneintensityisreflectedbythetime-variantstatisticalparameters（e.g.,meanvalueand/orstandarddeviation）,withwhichthemeanvalueandvariationofthecumulativehurricanedamageareevaluatedexplicitly.TheMiami-DadeCounty,Florida,USA,ischosentoillustratethehurricanedamageassessmentmethodproposedinthispaper.Theroleofnon-stationarityinhurricaneintensityandoccurrencerateduetoclimatechangeinhurricanedamageisinvestigatedusingsomerepresentativechangingpatternsofhurricaneparameters.
出版日期
2016年12月22日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
