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简介:湿地生态系统退化的临界状态判别是湿地风险评价的重要内容,也是实施湿地生态系统健康有效管理与保护的重要前提。以中国北方半干旱地区天然内陆湿地——卧龙湖为例,在综合考虑湿地退化指标的基础上,选择水质、蓄水量、生物多样性和生态脆弱性等典型参数指标建立了湿地生态系统退化状态判别的尖点突变模型。研究表明湿地生态系统的退化过程与突变理论的基本特征相符,模型拟合结果较好地反映了卧龙湖湿地退化状态。通过对卧龙湖湿地1994-2009年的数据模拟,结果表明:1994-2001年间卧龙湖湿地生态系统处于较健康的状态,而2002年的判别结果显示卧龙湖湿地处于退化突变状态,即湿地退化导致了生态系统相当程度的损害。研究还表明,卧龙湖湿地生态水量的减少和水环境质量的降低是导致湿地退化的重要因素。为了保护湿地生态系统的健康,防止卧龙湖湿地生态系统退化的发生,应在科学配置区域水资源的同时合理调整区域的产业结构,提高农村污水处理率。