简介:Theworldeconomywassuffereddramaticallyin2008,becauseofthefinan-cialturnaoil.Itispredictedthatinthenextyears,Chinaeconomicgrowthwillslowdown,and2009wouldnotbethebottom,buttheeconomyfunda-mentalisstillhealthy.Asoft'U'turncanbeexpectedinthefuture.Macro-economyTwoofChinaeconomicgrowthpillarengines,exportsectorandreal-estateindustryhavebeensignificantlyinfluencedbytheglobalfinancialcrisis,trendsofthistwosectorsshowthatChinacouldnotbeanexceptioninthiseconomictur-moil.Theglobaleconomicturmoilhasasignificantnegativeimpactontheexportgrowth,anddomesticimportsalsoslowdownsincedomesticdemandhasbeenweaken,(SeeChart1)Asoneofthepillarindustry,realestateindustrysufferedalotundernationaldeclinelastyear,withanationalaveragedropof4.7percentonhousingprice.(SeeChart2)Domesticfixed-assetinvestmentgrowthhasalsosloweddown.Chinabusinesscyclesignalindexshowsthatthemacro-economicshasbeenslowingdown,andaccordingtothehistoryofChina'seconomy,thisdownturnwouldlastatleast3years,2009wouldnotbethecyclebottom.(SeeChart3)Thebusinesscyclesignalindexisdecliningfrom117.3inMayto94.7inOcto-ber,thefirsttimetodropunder100from1992,meaningthemacroeconomichasbeenslowingdown,butisstillinthestablezonesofar.LookingbackatthehistoryoverChina'spast30years,economicgrowthcycli-caldownturnwouldlastatleast3years.StandardCharteredBank'slatestreportreducedChinaGDPforecastfor2008to9.6percent,apoor7.9percentin2009,andevenlowerat7.1percentfor2010.(SeeChart4)ChinaisbelievedtobeshieldedfromchaoslikeUS,andfinancialwoeshavelimitedimpactonChina.Thecountryhadrichresourcereserves,greatmarketpo-tential,vigorousenterprisesandthegovernmenthadstrongmacro-controlabilities.Themajorindicatorsareinhealthycondition,whichcanhelpChinagovernmenttofighttheeconomyturmoilin2009.
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简介:十四届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于建立社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》指出:“坚定不移地实行对外开放政策,加快对外开放步伐,充分利用国际国内两个市场、两种资源,优化资源配置。积极参与国际竞争与国际经济合作,发挥我国经济的比较优势,发展开放型经济,使国内经济与国际经济实现互接互补。”根据上述文件精神,按照国际规范和我国的实际情况,以什么样的标准和模式来规范我国开放型经济的类型,才能促进整个国民经济的大发展,本文拟对此做些分析论证,供大家研究参考。一、开放型经济一般要求我国实行对外开放政策十几年来,有效地推动了国民经济的快速发展。国际经验表明,任何一个国家和地区,