简介:基于性交的bivariate频率分析能被用来在能被气候变化引起的Huai河盆在洪水特征调查变化。历史的洪水山峰,在19612000的最大的3天、7天的卷和在20612100的未来值的univariate分布在A2,A1B和B1下面从二投射了GCM(CSIRO-MK3.5和CCCma-CGCM3.1)排放情形被分析并且比较。然后,山峰和体积的bivariate分布基于性交方法被构造,在联合回来时期的可能的变化被描绘。结果显示Clayton性交是更适当的为历史并且CCCma-CGCM3.1模仿洪水变量,当弗兰克和Gumbel的更好被适合到CSIRO-MK3.5模拟时。univariate和bivariate回来时期的变化表明洪水特征可能比不同排放情形对不同GCM更敏感。在二GCM之间,CSIRO-MK3.5显然在未来预言更严重的洪水条件,特别在B1情形下面,而CCCma-CGCM3.1通常建议矛盾的变化信号。这研究支持性交能用作一个可行、灵活的工具连接univariate边缘的分布充满变量并且确定联系了风险,它可以为基于风险的洪水控制提供有用信息。
简介:Atwo-waycouplingsimulationfromtheNCAR’sregionalclimatemodelREGCM2(calledR-2hereafter)andtheSUCROSmodelforcropgrowthdevelopedbytheWageningenAgriculturalUniversity,theNetherlands(bothmodels,whenincombination,denotedasR/S)arecarriedoutontheinteractionsbetweencropsandatmosphereintheHuang-Huai-HaiPlaininEastChina.EvidencesuggeststhattheR/Ssimulationscandepictprettywellthedynamicbiology-basedinteractionsbetweenthefactors,revealingreasonablyboththeday-to-dayvariationsinleafareaindex(LAI)andlandsurfacephysicstherein,andparticularlytheimprovementofthesimulation,independentlybyuseoftheR-2,ofsummerprecipitationandsurfacetemperatureintheresearchregion.Asaresult,thepresentresearchisofsignificancetothefurtherunderstandingoftheinteractionbetweentheclimatesystemandtheterrestrialecologicalsystems.
简介:EDITOR'SNOTE:TheDraftLaborContractLawofthePeople'sRepublicofChinahasbeencompletedandwaspublishedforsolicitingcommentsonMarch20.Inashortperiodofonemonth,191,849piecesofcommentsandopinionswerereceived.Priortothepromulgationofthelaw,thisreporterinterviewedMr.GuanHuai,anotedChineseexpertinlaborlaw,professoroftheLawSchooloftheRenminUniversityofChinaandlawadvisortotheAll-ChinaFederationofTradeUnions.