简介:文中通过FSA方法,分析构成海事事故的危险因素,提出实际有效的风险控制措施,基于有效性和经济性评估风险控制方案,从而得到最后的选择结果,完成本次基于FSA的秦皇岛港通航安全的研究。
简介:AmethodofreliabilityanalysisbasedonadirectstrengthcalculationemployingthevonMisesstressfailurecriterionispresentedhere.Theshorttermstraindistributionsofshiphullstructuralcomponentsareidentifiedthroughthestatisticalanalysisofthewave-inducedstrainhistoryandthelongtermdistributionsbytheweightedsummationoftheshorttermstraindistributions.Thewave-inducedlongtermstraindistributioniscombinedwiththestillwaterstrain.Theextremestraindistributionoftheresponsestrainisobtainedbystatisticalanalysisofthecombinedstrains.ThelimitstatefunctionofthereliabilityanalysisisbasedonthevonMisesstressfailurecriterion,includingtherelateduncertaintiesduetothequalityofthematerialandmodeluncertainty.ThereliabilityindexiscalculatedusingFORMandsensitivityanalysisofeachvariablethathaseffectsonthereliabilityisalsodiscussed.