简介：ＡｎＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｔｈｅＰｏｔｅｎｔｉａｌｏｆＣｈｉｎａ′ｓＧｒａｉｎＯｕｔｐｕｔｉｎ２０００———ＢｙｔｈｅＨｅａｄＲｕｒａｌＳｕｒｖｅｙＴｅａｍｏｆｔｈｅＳｔａｔｅＳｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕｈｉｎａ′ｓｇｒａｉｎｏｕｔｐｕｔｉｎｃｒ...

简介：OnthebasisofMARKAL-MACROmodelof'Energy-Economy-Environment'systemandKeyfitzmodelofdemography,energydemandinChinainthefuturewascalculated.Threescenarioswereputforwardtakingintoaccountofenergyefficiency,energystructureandrestrictionofclimatechange.CO2EmissionsinChinawillreachpeakvalue11.85Gtin2042inreferencescenario;10.75Gtin2036inoptimizedscenario;and9.47Gtin2031inrestrictionscenarioofclimatechange.Comparewithreferencescenario,carbonemissionsinrestrictionscenarioofclimatechangewilldeclineby2.38Gt,andpeaktimewillbellyearsearlier.Withthedevelopmentofurbanizationandindustrialization,carbonemissionsfromelectricpower,cement,steelwillrisegraduallythengodown;butemissionsfromtrafficwillgoupcontinuouslybecauseoftheincreaseofvehiclefleet.

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